I've been wathing Craig's List in the NW for a while too. I've seen a few X's come up between 9 and 10 K. My observation is that those disappear fast, within a day or two.

Keep watching and pounce when one comes up.

My understanding of KBB and the like is that they are simply "estimators". Their data comes from sale surveys. What matters is what they actually sell for. The dealers are asking for even more because they are getting a good portion of it.