That's $15 bucks in 24 hours

Note to self, fill up today before they bust out the long sticks with suction cups at the end....

Try $10.96.

Someone really needs to go up to the Morgan Stanley analyst and say:

"You motherfucker. What the HELL is your problem? What interests do YOU have in oil prices? What's in YOUR portfolio?"

To say oil is going to hit new highs is one thing. But to say a day after it dropped to $122 that it's going to go up $30 in less than a month...it's irresponsible.

(Yes, I know...all you free market people are going to jump all over me...but that's the way I see it)

(thankfully, I filled up this morning at $3.999)

Oh yeah...and gasoline futures...

Wednesday - down 15 cents.
Thursday - up 12 cents.
Friday - up 16 cents.

Watch those boards jump.

The FED is in a serious bind. If they raise rates it would strengthen the dollar and lower oil and the stock market but the housing market gets pummeled. If they leave rates alone or lower them then the dollar gets hammered and oil and the stock market go up and housing pain eases.

Personally I would raise rates and hit back at the oil problem....to hell with the housing bubble and the stock market. Big Ben is making a mistake in my opinion.

I'd also like to beat down that Morgan Stanley analyst. I'd also be interested in knowing what positions his firm and the firm's clients are holding.

A lot of foreign money is coming into the oil commodities market bidding up the price.

There is no reason for oil to be this high. It is time to put an end to this anonymous electronic trading that is going on.

(I can't believe I'm posting this...)

MM is right. This whole thing is based on what they "THINK" the price will do. They hear some dumbass say it's going to go up and it does. How much does he hold in this again? Self-serving prick.

Sorry, but these analysts have power and they are simply abusing it. People listen. They have a responsibility to keep their traps closed and let the market do what it will.

It's pretty hard to take when we're paying as much for gas as we are and the oil companies are recording record profits. Then they actually have the balls to tell Congress that "we're a huge company. We should see huge profits." There's a difference between huge profits and RECORD profits quarter after quarter. THAT'S what's pissing everyone off about this.

Sorry for the rant...

-G

First you say you agree with me, then you go on a rant stating many disagreeable things.

I don't even think you know what I was saying when you said you agreed with me.

Analysts who work for firms like Morgan Stanley can say anything they want. Their jobs are to provide information and advice for their firm's and their clients. However, some can, and have, used their position to manipulate the markets. Henry Blogett of Merril Lynch comes to mind.

Morgan Stanley recently came close to edge with massive losses. They have borrowed massively from the FED (which I don't think they should be allowed to do and I am against the FED's expanded lending policies) and they have borrowed heavily from foreign sources.

My concern is Morgan possibly being involved in illegal manipulation of the oil commodities market to recoup some of their massive losses and offset debt.

The oil companies ARE NOT the bad guys. The markets and what is going on in the oil trading markets are the problem.

I agree 100% madman. Blaming the oil companies is simplistic thinking and misguided imo.

Speculators and market makers are causing most of these problems along with a weak dollar. This bubble will pop eventually just like the housing market and the dot com bubble.

I'm feeling a big down day for the market on Monday, should be interesting!

I agree the analysts should shut their trap. The majority (70%) trading crude is the commercials (refiners/oil producers). Speculators do not have the weight to push the market around. Electronic trading also has little to do with it.

Liquidity in the pit/on the screen may have alot to do with it. NYMEX locals have been known to be the dirtiest in the biz.

There will be an investigation soon regarding price manipulation. Based off of the price action this morning, IMHO today's rally was alot of liquidation due to margin calls (margin is only $10k a contract which is a $10.00 move in the market).

Stock market selloff due to unemployment jumping .5% didn't help matter and just magnified the recent inverse relationship between the stocks and oil (almost matching new lows in the stocks with new highs in the CL today)

Off to fill up the beast and burn 2 gallons on the way home

I've been thinking about this very point for the past few months now. Here we sit with an ever weakening dollar while foreign investors are coming in with stronger currency and bidding up oil futures thereby hurting us further. What really gets me though is that there should be some sort of economic backlash, right? Aren't we supposedly living in a "global economy" these days? I get the whole cyclical behavior of an economy (self correcting), but now that we're so connected, won't the results be a bit different this time around? Won't other countries start failing economically as a direct result of our situation because our economy shows little signs of correcting itself?

I know we're not in a textbook recession (2 quarters of negative growth) but I just don't see how people can continue to afford oil/energy the way things are going. Also what about this good ol' 10% ethanol additive we're filling up on these days? Ethanol seems highly irrational as an alternative fuel source because it not only drives up the price of food, but heaven forbid we suffer a dust bowl style drought we're really up the creek. I don't know anymore... greed comes in many forms, that's all I know.

Analysts should shut their traps publicly if their intention is to cause price manipulation for them and their clients. I'd guarantee this Morgan Stanley analysts big mouth helped the position of his firm and their clients.

I disagree that 70% of crude trading is done by the commercials. By that I mean the oil companies themselves. They do some, but the money they have to engage in such activity is a tiny fraction of what is being traded.

You are correct if you are including oil producing countries who themselves control vast amounts of money through these so-called "Sovereign Wealth Funds" and a lot of this money winds up in hedge funds which also controls a lot of commodities trading.

There is a lot of trading going on that is outside of the reach of any traditional American regulatory agencies. A lot of that trading is anonymous and all this activity should be illegal.

Last CFTC COT Report reported commercials roughly 63% of the open interest (open positions, not day trades) Non commercial OI was roughly 15%. The rest was non reportable positions.

True. The ICE does not report to the CFTC like the NYMEX does YET .... CFTC reviewing recent market swings

Analysts have been predicting $200 oil for months. I agree spec trading is not helping cool the rally but they do not control the price. Wait until Exxon unwinds part of a hedge. Funds will join in taking profits. Oil will drop like a rock until the market (market = everyone trading it) thinks the price is low enough and start buying again. Shit, maybe OPEC will increase output. That would make trading interesting.

linky

"One reason we may feel we are in a bubble is the forecasts coming from reputable investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers and CIBC and others, where they have boldly predicted $150 and $200 oil in the not too distant future. It is these kinds of predictions that make one remember the predictions at the height of the dot-com boom."
linky

It's a fun business. Unless you deal with it on a daily basis, you can't totally grasp the whole concept. Lots of moving parts.

Open an account and see what happens to you. For most it's like sticking your hand in the radiator fan while the engine is running ....