I got this from an asphalt trade magazine. It is focused on asphalt, but also goes deep into the fuel trade.

Because we import so much diesel fuel from abroad, we could see a reduction in supply because many of the foriegn refiners have yet to install the equipment to produce the new low sulfer fuels. The oil refiners do not see growth in the US and an increase in production costs. Most are predicting up to half of the current supply will be cut off and sent elsewhere around the globe, becasue of the new standards.

Expect the current price of diesel to triple by the end of the years as the new standards kick in.

27mpg at $9.00/gal is not less costly than 19mpg @ $4.00 gallon

Gasoline supply will also decrease, but not as much because it is easier to meet the new standards.

Domestic supply is expected to get a 15% boost by 2009 as domestic oil refineries construct cokers. Cokers can take the oil-bottoms (asphalt, heating oil, motor oil) and turn it into gasoline & diesel.

So not only is gas and diesel going to continue to rise, The once cheap products from oil bottoms will rise significantly.

Gas & diisel sell for about $600/ton while oil bottom products sell for about $2-300/ton. An oil refiner would be financially stupid to produce oil-bottom products after a coker has been constructed, unless the oil-bottom products demand a price equal to fuel.