It will be interesting to see if Sony can indeed make this happen.

This was Toshiba's and the HD-DVD camp's argument all along - pricing is key (hello - Betamax/VHS???)

You can see the same thing with the PS3/Wii - the Wii is kicking the snot out of the PS3. Price matters to the mass market.

Walmart is talking a sub-$200 HD-DVD player. If they do that, and it's decent (doesn't have to be good, just decent), then it's over... As you point out, neither format is selling in anything close to mainstream numbers - so that means it's just crazy videophiles like you and me venturing in. If Wal-mart gets the prices down to mass market levels (under $200) Sony is screwed.

And those Blueray exclusives? That will change if there's a significant shift in sales volume. Same for the HD-DVD exclusives if it shifts to blue-ray. Follow the money...