If you're going to be playing in mud the 1.5 times your weight rule goes clean out the window. If you're ever going to be up to your hubs in mud plan 200% and if you go to your frame plan 300%. I'd get a 9500 with plenty of extension lines, snatch blocks, and a pull pal or two (or you can bury your spare tire, just rememeber a shovel). I'm running a 12000 (since that's what i already had) and i've never used a snatch to pull me out. Plus the winch only cost me $600 new. It's a Milemarker E12000, compared to the warn M12000 it pulls faster and at a lower amp draw when loaded. It's always gotten me out so i can't complain.
Justin