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Originally posted by porsche996:
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Your Yugo/Nissan is not a valid comparison. Yugo failed because it was a bad car, and it was not in direct competition with Nissan. By all reports, the Toshibas are excellent players.
Fine.

Replace "Yugo" with "Delorean", and the comparison is valid.

My point is, cost rarely has anything to do with whether a new format will replace an old. CD's cost less to make than a cassette tape, but cost more for the consumer. Not too many cassette tapes being sold anymore.

DVD's cost less than a VHS to make, but cost more to the consumer. Not too many VHS being sold anymore, either.

Quality very rarely determines whether either format will win, either. Beta was better quality than VHS. Laserdisk was better than VHS. JVC's High Definition VHS has equivalent quality to HD DVD and BlueRay (up to 1080i), and it's not going to win.

The only thing that matters is perception. I think HD DVD will fail, because by putting out their "dual format" disks, they only give an impression that it's an "upgraded" DVD version. Whereas Blue Ray, with its name, implies it's something completely different (even though, really, it's still just HD quality video).

The only benefit that HD DVD has over Blue Ray is cost of manufacturing the disk, and cheaper video players. The consumer doesn't see any difference in cost when buying a movie. And the difference in cost of players is a negligable difference, when you're looking at who will actually be buying EITHER format over the next couple years or so.

The average, cost conscious buyer isn't buying HD anything, right now. They're happy to watch their DVD player on their "HD TV", and don't realize they aren't watching HD anything. Look at the different consumer polls that come through every few months; the "average" person bought a HD TV, and has never bought any HD television channels, receivers, etc. And they ALL think they're watching HD, just 'cause their spiffy new TV has a sticker on the front of it that says HDTV.
I agree with most of what you have said, but I do think cost is still a factor. Remember, DVD didn't take off until the price of the players came down. And I agree that $500+ is more than most are willing to spend to watch HD movies, but the price of HD players are now close to the same price of regular DVD players. The movies cost about 20-25% more, but they are available to rent for no additional cost.

And for the record, I own both a HD DVD and Bluray player, and am not biased to either. My only bias is that HD takes hold - regardless of format.

porsche996 - just realized we also had some fun discussions in the HD TV thread a few months back. smile